Challenge
In 2026, a large-scale equipment rental company engaged FSI to model a range of decarbonization scenarios as part of its efforts to reset its scope 1, 2, and 3 GHG emissions reduction targets. The company sought to understand the feasibility of low and high-ambition decarbonization pathways, the level of ambition required to align with its competitors, and their projected scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions out to 2050. The analysis needed to consider the costs and benefits of different decarbonization levers, and the economics of their options. The company also needed a living model to carry forward post-engagement, allowing it to update assumptions and reassess its pathways as business conditions change. They required a trusted advisor capable of modelling complex decarbonization projections and summarizing these projections into understandable, executive-facing presentations for target approval.
Solution
FSI took a pragmatic and thorough approach to the exercise, first aligning with a broad range of internal business leaders across five key departments to project its scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions out to 2050 in a business-as-usual scenario. As part of this analysis, FSI accounted for organic emissions reductions from the electricity grid and fleet. FSI then identified nearly 50 potential emissions reduction levers and assessed their (i) operational and technological feasibility, (ii) anticipated emissions reductions, and (iii) marginal abatement costs / savings. FSI’s modelling process brought these two components together, applying levers with the greatest ROI first in lower ambition scenarios, then layering on additional levers to create four different decarbonization scenarios, differing in ambition, implementation schedules, and cost outcomes.
Impact
The result of our work was a complex, interactive model in which the company could toggle between each of the four scenarios assessed, and ratchet certain decarbonization levers up and down to analyze potential financial and emissions implications. FSI’s marginal abatement research for each lever drove the analysis, allowing the company to identify and prioritize decarbonization levers with the best emissions and financial impact. FSI created an executive-facing presentation, summarizing the methodology and analysis outcomes, that the company’s sustainability team used to receive approval from the board. The company was able to successfully update their GHG emissions target publicly as a result of this work, and continues to engage FSI as its decarbonization advisor.